Democrats laid anchor for a red wave but found themselves in calmer waters. While Republicans are on the cusp of taking the House of Representatives with a razor-thin majority, Democrats have already secured the 50 seats necessary to maintain their majority in the Senate, bucking 2022 polling averages and historic midterm trends.
Dhruv Mandel, a graduate student here at EMU, suspects that part of the inaccuracy of pre-election polls can be chalked up to the changing demographics of the electorate. “People thought Trumpism was still strong, especially in the current political climate, but they significantly underestimated Gen Z.” Mandel also notes that the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the landmark abortion case Roe v. Wade drove people to vote for Democrats, saying, “I think telling women what they can do with their bodies really changed the dynamic this time around.”
Desmoné Logan, also an EMU graduate student, believes that social media positively influenced youth turnout. “I think with social media, if you see that your friends have a sticker, you want one too, so you go out to vote.” Logan agrees with Mandel that these elections were a referendum on social issues. “Abortion played a really big role, and a candidate’s current and past positions on abortion was a major factor. LGBTQ rights were a defining issue as well.”
Junior Ashley Mellinger, a native Pennsylvanian, agrees that abortion played a particularly big role in her State’s elections, where Democratic candidate John Fetterman flipped a Republican Senate seat. “What drove me to vote was the reproductive right to abortion. I don’t believe that decision should be made by a politician and I’m so glad Fetterman and Shapiro will fight to keep that right to the people.”
Though Republicans failed to gain a Senate majority, they had a record year in the long-time swing state of Florida. For the first time in Florida since the Reconstruction era, not a single Democrat was elected to statewide office.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was originally elected in 2018 by a narrow margin of 0.4%, won reelection handily with 59.4% of the statewide vote. DeSantis hasn’t ruled out a presidential bid, and after fundraising well over $200 million according to The Financial Times (breaking the all-time gubernatorial fundraising record), he will have plenty of cash on hand if he chooses to throw down the gauntlet against Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination.
