To kick off last Friday, history professor Mary Sprunger shared a bit of information about the history of the Keim Lecture series prior to the lecture itself. She said the Keim Lecture Series was founded in the “academic year 2012-13, so eight years ago. The idea of it is to provide our students exposure to a new perspective of some expert scholar… in something related to history and political science.” 

The lecture gets its name from Albert N. Keim, former professor and academic dean here at EMU. He died in 2008, and this lecture was established in his honor. 

At this year’s lecture, Ernesto Verdeja presented a topic entitled, “Predicting Genocide and Mass Atrocities.” Verdeja works as a professor of political science and peace studies at the University of Notre Dame. 

As the lecture was about to start, people flooded in, both students and community members filling the Strite conference room. Three rows of chairs were even brought in to accommodate the amount of people. 

To preface the lecture, Verdeja gave an analogy of signals that indicate someone may be about to have a heart attack. He talked about how, if someone has a pain in their left side, it is “highly correlated but not causal” when related to a heart attack. This is the framework he used for the model for predicting genocide and mass atrocities. His point was that the models he shares do not guarantee a future tragedy. “We work in probabilities,” Verdeja explained.

Verdeja focused on two main points: early warning indicators and risk assessment factors. Things that were mentioned as early warning indicators for genocide or mass atrocities were fragmentation, hate propaganda, and increased support for armed weapons. 

Verdeja then incorporated these indicators into the risk assessment models. According to Verdeja, these models are “a systematic system that provides a country watchlist.” 

This watchlist compiles countries that have triggers or accelerators similar to those seen in the past. “Think holocaust,” said Verdeja.     Risk assessments are done in order to give organizations like the United Nations information about at-risk countries so that they can be proactive in stopping  mass atrocities. Watchlists have worked with countries that were predicted to have violence boil over about two years out. This is signifcant, as Verdeja explained that “by the time [genocide or mass atrocities] happen, it’s too late.” 

After the lecture there was a Q&A where students and community members were given a chance to interact with Verdeja. Sophomore Andrew Nord asked, “What are some examples of things that these watchlists have prevented?” 

This led Verdeja to the topic of Kenya. In 2007 there was violence surrounding the election where “thousands of people were killed.” In 2013, Kenya was gearing up to have an election with the same indicators as before, and concerted efforts were made by the UN to help rulers mediate. Such efforts likely helped avoid mass violence in Kenya.

Senior Gabby McMillan said it was interesting to see “practical implications and examples of some of the stuff I’ve learned.” McMillan is a Peacebuilding and Development major. “In peace-building theory and action we go over developing risk assessment models.”