In recent months, the Republican primary race has gone through significant changes…or has it? Over the course of the semester, the candidates have frequently shifted, some even dropping out. Even with these dramatic changes, nothing seems to have changed. Today, I want to explore how the race has changed and the illusion of safety within Trump’s campaign. According to FiveThirtyEight regarding the national average of the polls, former President Donald Trump is currently at 59.6%, Governor of Fla. Ron DeSantis is at 12.7%, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 10.6%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 4.6%, former Governor of N.J. Chris Christie at 2.7%, and former Governor of Ark. Asa Hutchinson at 0.5%.
To clarify, Trump still has an excellent shot at knocking it out of the park. People are saying that Trump has the primary in the bag; however, I am not confident that this is true. Due to the fact that Trump is amidst multiple indictments and there are still many people in the Republican party who are unsure if they would still support Trump depending on how these cases go, I remain unconvinced. In addition to my uncertainty, many voters state that they are continuously supporting Trump, but they are not opposed to changing their vote. Considering the fact that a multitude of candidates have dropped from the races in the past few months, there has been little to no change in Trump’s numbers in terms of voting. So, as the race begins to narrow, the numbers will get closer.
Recently, Haley has been gaining some traction, gaining support in S.C. and N.H., the second and third primary states. Haley also recently received a significant endorsement from Koch Industries. Koch (which you pronounce like Coke, but they are two different industries) Industries is run by the Koch brothers, Charles and David Koch. The Koch brothers are the biggest Republican donors who control many parts of the Republican party. Since Haley has gotten this endorsement, she receives more establishment and organizational support. In addition, Haley will get a large increase of funds. These changes indicate that Haley will receive a boost in the primary from Koch Industries, which will be significant if Trump begins to falter in the races.
Politically, Haley also has more moderate positions and gets more independent support compared to her running mates. She also supports pro-life policies, but she is not an extremist in this belief; she is against punishing people who get abortions and she does not hate people who identify as pro-choice. Personally, this stance is more of a palatable position than some in the Republican Party.
On the other hand, DeSantis has been falling in recent months. Recently, he has been focusing on the first primary state: Iowa. If he does well in that primary, he could gain momentum to help him in the following states. DeSantis recently received a slew of endorsements from Iowa officials, starting with an endorsement from Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa. From there, DeSantis got a multitude of minor endorsements that will help him do a lot better overall in Iowa.
So there is still a good chance that Trump will win, but again, by no means does he have it locked up.