This week, I will be talking about the Republican Presidential primary. Most, if not everyone, reading this will be eligible to vote in 2024, so my goal is to help inform people about what might happen in one of the primaries. This all is my opinion, analysis, and predictions, so I might get some things wrong. So far, there have been three significant candidates to announce their campaigns: former president Donald Trump, former United Nations ambassador and governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. These are not the only candidates that will run and I expect a full field of Republicans to announce campaigns by this summer. I will review some potential candidates I think could significantly impact the race and say how I expect them to do. 

First, I expect that in the coming months, the Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, will announce that he is running. He has been getting more national attention by going trying to get rid of some AP classes and going after Disney. Governor Desantis will also be doing a book tour all over the country. That is what people getting ready to run for president usually do to test their message in different states. 

Likewise, we have former vice president Mike Pence, currently traveling the country and promoting his book. The current Senator of South Carolina, Tim Scott, has been meeting with different GOP donors. Former congresswoman from Wyoming, Liz Cheney has been rumored to get ready to run. Lastly, these final three I am putting together because I think if one runs, the other two will likely not run:Governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu, and the former governors of Massachusetts and Maryland, Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan respectively. Again, there will probably be more people running, but I believe these will be the front runners. After the January 6th riots and the 2022 midterms, I believe Donald Trump does not have the same power he once had in the Republican Party. It seems like the Republican Party is going to be standing up to him and will be trying to pick a new standard barrier to lead them into the 2024 presidential election. The Republican Party seems to move away from Trumpsim, but I think that there is still a very strong chance that Trump will win the primary. So far, the biggest challenger to Trump is Governor Desantis. I think that Trump will always have about 20 percent, which is his die-hard Tumpians. Right now, he is polling around 40 to 50 percent, Ron Desantis is in the upper 20s, and then Pence is getting in the upper teens, Haley is getting in the lower teens, and everyone else is below ten percent. I think Trump will continue to lose some of his support. I think that Desantis will start to get a lot of the people who used to be strong Trump supporters and still believe in Trump’s ideas but just think that he does not have what it takes to win anymore. It looks like much of Trump’s evangelical support is starting to waiver. If they do leave him, I think they will go to Pence. That should be enough to keep him relevant and a good chunk of money and support from each state. I think that Cheney will take the “never trumpers” conservative Republicans. Then I think that Nikki Haley and Tim Scott will take more of the establishment Republicans. Then Hogan, Baker, and Sununu are all fiscally conservative but socially moderate to liberal and will bring moderates and Independents. All that is to say, I think if all these people stay in the race, they will split up the vote enough to let Trump win, but if they start to work together, I think that Trump will lose.